Tuesday Predictions

TN Senate Race

Bob Corker 54%

Harold Ford 46%

TN 9th congressional district

Steve Cohen 40%

Jake Ford 39%

Mark White 21%

US Senate
Republicans keep the Senate, but lose seats. Final totals will be 51 Republicans 47 Democrats 2 Independents.

US House

Republicans loose the majority by two seats

Gay Marriage Bans pass in every state they are on the ballot, unfortunately.

I can tell you that there is no good option this election season. If the Republicans win, its more of the same crap. If the Democrats win, it will be the same crap, with some extra crap piled on. Best case scenario, is the one I believe will happen, Republicans keep the Senate (barely) and lose the house and that should gridlock things enough to stop the wreckless spending. Hopefully pressure will cause Rumsfeld to get booted. Also, two options could come from the Republicans losing control of the house and/or Senate, one good one bad. Good scenario is that Republicans remember what conservatism used to be (and still is in intellectual circles) limited government and true just war philosophy. Barry Goldwater type stuff. The bad option is that they become even more bigoted and populist, pushing gay marriage bans, protectionist economic policies, and border fences with lasers to shoot brown people before they can come across.

What will happen? No body knows. Anyone else have election predicitions?


7 responses to “Tuesday Predictions

  1. my prediction is that ford wins, and that democrats in general retake both houses. I think the polls are inherently slanted towards the republicans because there are a lot of people without landlines who are essentially unpollable. This is just my own opinion, but I believe that young people with only cellphones across the country are slanted democrat, but we’ll see. I said the same thing about 2004, and we all know how that turned out.

    On a side note, everyone needs to catch “Hacking Democracy” on HBO. At the risk of ruining the ending, it ends with this non-profit surprising this election committee chairman by showing how someone could fairly easily change the election results in Diebold machines. scary stuff

  2. Ford derailed his campaign a couple weeks ago. I would have picked him to win then, but he did a good job of getting the conservative base behind Corker. It all started when he crashed the press conference and Corker pretty much told him to F off (in a nice way of course. he’s not dick cheney) Then the “republicans fear the lord, democrats love the lord” thing, and supporting Bob Rochelle, he’s just made a litany of mistakes in the past two weeks or so. He’s shot himself in the food… multiple times. There’s no foot left.

    Dems won’t take the Senate. Several of the key tight races have gone from leaning democrat to strong republican in the last couple weeks. It doesn’t matter if they don’t poll on cell phones. They have to get a certain sample for the poll to be valid. So they just make calls til they get enough young people.

  3. Do you think the John Kerry ‘dumb military’ comment sparks any of this Republican resurgence? I know it’s pie in the sky, but can’t SOMEONE come along in a third party / independent and really make some real changes? Lieberman is trying, I guess…after others have walked that road… and would it be any better? Politics. Ick.

  4. I’m sure it has something to do with it. But republicans started gaining ground before Kerry’s comments, I think it has more to do with realizing that the democrats have absolutely no agenda, besides hating president bush… Not a good campaign strategy in my opinion, no matter how bad a job he’s done.

  5. Let’s not forget that Government doesn’t save people, God does…

  6. MSNBC is reporting that there are like 1.2M registered voters in TN, and election officials are announcing that 400k or so have early voted. If a third early voted, most of those people voted when ford was ahead in the polls. just an interesting twist

  7. Justin: I think you hit the nail on the head. People need to see an agenda of more than just blaming President Bush.

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